Out earlier this year! A paper that illustrates the potential efficacy of seasonal prediction for near-surface wind speed and solar radiation via statistical models.
Forecasting wind and solar power availability for the upcoming season is potentially useful for several reasons. Skillful forecasts may help grid managers and distributors to anticipate heightened risks of electricity shortfalls or help wind and solar farm owners to a) more optimally structure electricity sale contracts or b) plan maintenance if the upcoming season’s production is expected to be low.
Our paper – Skillful statistical models to predict seasonal wind speed and solar radiation in a Yangtze River estuary case study authored by Peng Zeng, Xun Sun, and myself – in Scientific Reports uses antecedent sea surface temperature and pressure field patterns to predict wind speed and solar radiation in the Yangtze River estuary. We find that wintertime (November through January) wind sped and and solar radiation is most predictable.
You can find our paper here. Please email me if you have issues accessing the paper.